Week 12 NFL Wrap - AFC Playoff Picture 🏈

We’re through Week 12, and it feels like the entire AFC is surrounded by uncertainty. Injuries, quarterback struggles, and a few surprising contenders have turned every division into its own kind of chaos. Here’s a snapshot of where things stand right now.

 AFC East

1. Patriots (10-2)

2. Bills (7-4)

3. Dolphins (4-7)

4. Jets (2-9)

The bottom half of the AFC East looks exactly like most expected heading into the season, but the Patriots sitting at 10-2 has put the league on notice. The Bills defense continues to be at the center of their struggles. At 7-4, the playoffs are still realistic, but the division title is likely out of reach after already dropping one to New England, meaning they are fighting the rest of the AFC for a wild card spot.

AFC North 

1. Ravens (6-5)

2. Steelers (6-5)

3. Bengals (3-8)

4. Browns (3-8)

The order of the AFC North is unfolding pretty much as people expected, but the records are the real surprise. Only one team is likely to make the playoffs, and whoever gets in feels like a one-and-done candidate. Rodgers is hurt, Lamar isn’t playing like himself, and Burrow missed the majority of the season. It is a strange year for a division that was projected to be elite, yet it might be the worst division in the AFC.

AFC South 

1. Colts (8-3)

2. Jaguars (7-4)

3. Texans (6-5)

4. Titans (1-10) 

The AFC South has been genuinely fun this season. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor have turned the Colts into a team nobody can quite figure out, yet they keep stacking wins every week. Trevor Lawrence has been solid and gives Jaguars fans hope for the future, though their success has mostly come from the defense and the run game, making it a weekly rollercoaster. The Texans have shown promise, powered by an elite defensive unit, while the offense has struggled to put points on the board. As for the Titans, they are a long way from being competitive, and Ward simply does not have enough weapons to work with.

AFC West

1. Broncos (9-2)

2. Chargers (7-4)

3. Chiefs (6-5)

4. Raiders (2-9)

Another division that feels unpredictable. The Broncos sit at 9-2, but the division title doesn’t feel fully locked up, and it’s fair to question whether they can maintain it. Meanwhile, the Chargers look shaky at 7-4, with Herbert struggling behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The Chiefs’ win over the Colts last week improves their odds at securing a Wild Card spot. While it may sound bold, there’s still a chance the Chiefs could pull this division out. Betting against Mahomes and Andy Reid is never easy, but time is running out, and they’ll need some help to climb back into first place.

AFC Playoff Picture 

1. BYE - Patriots 

      (2)  Broncos VS (7) Bills

The Bills are a scary 7 seed. It feels wrong saying the reward for finishing 2nd in the conference is Josh Allen. I don't see a world where the Bills don't win this. Surtain is still hurt as of now, and the Broncos offense can't stay on par with the Bills if they are on. The key is the Bills defense. If they can't figure it out and pick it up, they are in trouble. Yet I'm not betting against Josh Allen right now so I'd have to take the Bills in this one. 

       (3) Colts VS (6) Jaguars 

Who would have ever guessed this as the 3-6 matchup. I'd imagine most people had both teams miss the playoffs so interesting here. I would easily be betting on JT and the colts here. I feel like this would be an underrated game and it would be nice to see T Law in a playoff game, don’t think anyone would guess he would be in a matchup vs Daniel Jones in the big 2025.

        (4) Chargers VS (5) Ravens

Truthfully based on the results of both these teams this year this could be the worst playoff matchup imaginable. The Chargers have been one of the most inconsistent teams to date. Ladd has been a huge disappointment, and if it weren't for the early success of the returning Keenan Allen we may not be having this conversation. It definitely won't help that the Ravens have been even worse. Major regression from Henry, but it's not really on him. The defense has been horrid. Bottom 10 or 15 in most major categories. Lamar has also not been that good, he has been hurt so there is some slack to cut but you can thank the awful AFC North for this Matchup.

My Picks 🚀

Happy Thanksgiving to all of our American readers! There’s nothing better than being greeted with not one, not two, but three Thursday football games. Let’s run through three touchdown scorers, one from each game, to fit our Rocket picks for this week.

Combine these three Rocket picks for a 13.8x multiplier. Let's hope Thanksgiving brings some high-scoring games!

1. David Montgomery: More than 0.5 Rush + Rec TD:

It’s Thanksgiving! What better time for Jahmyr Gibbs to share the ball with his buddy Monty.

2. George Pickens: More than 0.5 Rush + Rec TD

Maybe CeeDee is the WR2? I'm mostly kidding, but Pickens has been on fire, so let’s add him in.

3. Rashod Bateman: More than 0.5 Rush + Rec TD

Bateman has come up big for me a few times this year. With a struggling defense in Cincinnati, let’s see if Lamar can get the passing game going.

I've also begun writing a Hockey blog rolling through some of the best NHL tough guys of the pre 2010s. A sort of time capsule if you will, of an art that has slowly found its way out of the game. Check out my first one on Joey Kocur! 

https://www.ownersbox.com/post/working-the-red-line-ep-1